Cocoa moved +1.2% on the day. Our read across the agriculture complex, joined to structural regional balance and live crop conditions.
Cocoa is the session's standout in agriculture, modestly higher (+1.2%) at 5,594.00 USD/t. Notably it cuts against the twelve-month picture, where Cocoa sits dramatically lower (-26.7%).
Over twelve months the dispersion inside the segment is the story. Wheat leads at +47.7% while Cocoa sits at -26.7% — a 74-point spread. Dispersion of this width is where relative-value structures earn their keep; directional exposure to the segment as a block would have masked both ends of that range.
On realised volatility, Coffee carries high realised volatility at 62% annualised against Soybeans at 20%. Position sizing should reflect that gap rather than treating the segment as one risk unit.
Wheat sits in the upper half of its two-year range (83%); Corn sits at the top of its two-year range (95%); Soybeans sits at the top of its two-year range (117%); Coffee sits in the lower half of its two-year range (18%). Where price sits within its own distribution matters more for mean-reversion work than the headline percentage change.
Structurally, our regional matrix flags 5 positions in this segment as tight or in deficit. The clearest is Winter Wheat in North America, which accounts for roughly 7% of world supply. The binding constraint: plains drought and hard-red protein premiums. Similar tightness sits across Black Sea, East Africa, South & Southeast Asia.
Price-setting power concentrates in a small number of regions: South America (Soybeans, ~40%), South America (Arabica Coffee, ~40%), South America (Sugar, ~22%). Concentration of this order means a policy or logistics event in one jurisdiction transmits to the global curve directly — the reason we track regional balance alongside price.
Crop conditions. Our weather layer places Western Australia at the top of the stress ranking at 54 (elevated) — a seven-day water balance of -16 mm against root-zone soil moisture of 0.099 m³/m³ and average daily highs of 21.3 °C. That is a genuine supply signal for wheat / canola. Mato Grosso (Soybeans / Corn), Central Kenya (Coffee / Tea) also register stress.
| Instrument | Price | Day | 30d | 1y | Vol (ann.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat | 704.75 USD/bu | -0.5% | +12.9% | +47.7% | 38% |
| Corn | 527.50 USD/bu | -0.3% | +16.9% | +37.6% | 31% |
| Soybeans | 1,314.50 USD/bu | -0.3% | +4.1% | +23.0% | 20% |
| Coffee | 276.60 USD/lb | +0.2% | -5.4% | -17.7% | 62% |
| Cocoa | 5,594.00 USD/t | +1.2% | +12.1% | -26.7% | 59% |
| Sugar | 18.63 USD/lb | -0.9% | +21.1% | +7.4% | 28% |