Precious Metals: Gold Spot leads the session

The read

Gold Spot is the session's standout in precious metals, broadly flat (+0.5%) at 4,596.30 USD/oz. The move runs with the longer trend — Gold Spot is dramatically higher (+37.8%) over twelve months.

Over twelve months the dispersion inside the segment is the story. Silver Spot leads at +76.1% while Gold Spot sits at +37.8% — a 38-point spread. Dispersion of this width is where relative-value structures earn their keep; directional exposure to the segment as a block would have masked both ends of that range.

On realised volatility, Platinum Spot carries elevated realised volatility at 36% annualised against Gold Spot at 21%. Position sizing should reflect that gap rather than treating the segment as one risk unit.

Gold Spot sits in the upper half of its two-year range (74%); Silver Spot sits in the lower half of its two-year range (46%); Platinum Spot sits in the lower half of its two-year range (48%). Where price sits within its own distribution matters more for mean-reversion work than the headline percentage change.

Structurally, our regional matrix flags 4 positions in this segment as tight or in deficit. The clearest is Gold in West Africa, which accounts for roughly 12% of world supply. The binding constraint: ghana, mali and burkina output against artisanal-mining formalisation. Similar tightness sits across Central & Southern Africa, East Africa, Oceania.

Price-setting power concentrates in a small number of regions: Central & Southern Africa (Platinum, ~80%). Concentration of this order means a policy or logistics event in one jurisdiction transmits to the global curve directly — the reason we track regional balance alongside price.

Segment snapshot